Here’s what Polymarket says about the Alberta Referendum

Polls always tell one story, but something else to consider is where people are willing to put their money. And in the Alberta Referendum, all predictions are going in one direction.

Source: Unsplash (edited with AI)

The question asked to users of the popular prediction market Polymarket is “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?” The answer, at least based on the data shared by Polymarket, puts the chances of independence at just 1 to 2 per cent.

While speculation surrounding separation may have been higher earlier in the year, excluding the first moments the question was asked, the expectation that the referendum would actually result in separation never rose above 20 per cent — and even that was only for two days in February 2026.

Instead, Polymarket has shown a consistent 5–15 per cent estimate that separation could happen, with a gradual curve downwards as the day of the referendum approaches.

This data is brought to you in partnership with Polymarket.