Trade war sees Canada-U.S. air travel plummet, down 70 per cent

Air travel between Canada and the U.S. has seen a “striking decline” amid the escalating trade war, with passenger numbers dropping by as much as 70 per cent during the peak travel months.

Source: RawPixel

Air travel between Canada and the U.S. has seen a “striking decline” amid the escalating trade war, with passenger numbers dropping by as much as 70 per cent during the peak travel months of July and August compared to last year.

According to data compiled by the Official Airline Guide, an aviation analytics company, one-way seat sales between Canada and the U.S. have fallen significantly.

The Official Airline Guide reviewed how many people have booked trans-border flights between April and September and found that the total number of booked tickets was down anywhere from 71% to 76%.

“Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on 3rd March and those filed on 24th March, the table below shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October,” reads the report.

The data firm attributes this major decline to travellers “holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”

Statistics Canada released a report earlier this month which found that “Canadian-resident return trips by air stood at 1.8 million, down 2.4% from the same month one year earlier.”

However, the aviation data is a drop in the bucket when it comes to revealing the growing disinterest in Canada-U.S. travel.

“In February, the number of US-resident trips to Canada by automobile was 676,800, a decline of 7.9% from the same month in 2024,” said Statistics Canada.

The number of Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the US totalled 1.2 million last month, marking a 23 per cent drop from February 2024.

Airlines like WestJet are now looking to make up for lost U.S. routes in Europe, adding 114 flights to actively replace capacity outside of the United States

“Dublin and Edinburgh are the two airports benefiting the most from these changes in capacity,” said the Official Airline Guide. “Limited slot availability at major European airports might be part of the reason Air Canada have not followed WestJet.”

Official Airline Guide called the trend a “concern” for all airlines operating between Canada and the U.S., especially since it’s such a large market facing losses on such short notice.

“Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry adding to what had already become a softening market,” it said.

“For those that are still planning to travel there may be some airlines offering particularly cheap airfares over the next few months as they seek to stimulate demand but for the airlines it will be a nervous few months, especially as the traditional "snowbird" market from Canada to the US could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesn’t improve quickly.”