Small population dip follows historic immigration surge

A reported decline in Canada’s population late last year represents only a marginal shift following several years of rapid growth driven by historically high immigration levels.

Source: Rawpixel

A reported decline in Canada’s population late last year represents only a marginal shift following several years of rapid growth driven by historically high immigration levels, according to federal data and parliamentary analysis.

Statistics Canada reported a 0.2 per cent population decline in the most recent quarter, marking what it described as the largest quarterly population drop on record.

The estimate was cited in a Globe and Mail report shared this month by Marc Miller, the former immigration minister who was recently appointed Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet.

The Statistics Canada estimate is based largely on modelling that assumes many temporary residents leave the country once their visas expire. However, the federal government does not have precise data on how many temporary residents actually depart Canada when their permits lapse.

A House of Commons report has estimated that approximately 4.9 million temporary resident permits were set to expire between late 2024 and December 31, 2025. Those permits include international students, temporary foreign workers, and other non-permanent residents.

Federal officials have acknowledged that Canada does not consistently track whether individuals leave the country when their temporary status ends, making it difficult to determine how much of the reported population decline reflects actual departures rather than statistical assumptions.

Even with the reported quarterly dip, Canada’s population remains significantly larger than it was just a few years ago. Statistics Canada data show the population has grown by about 9.5 per cent since 2021, one of the fastest growth rates among developed countries.

That increase coincided with record levels of immigration under the former Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau, including sharp rises in both permanent and temporary resident admissions.

The federal government has since announced plans to reduce the share of temporary residents to five per cent of the population by 2027, citing pressure on housing, health care and infrastructure. Those targets assume a substantial number of temporary residents will leave Canada as their permits expire.

Miller previously served as immigration minister from 2023 until earlier this year and was responsible for overseeing the department as temporary resident numbers reached record highs. He returned to cabinet this month under Carney in a newly defined portfolio focused on Canadian identity and culture.

In recent days, Miller has kept a low public profile on Parliament Hill, with the Prime Minister’s Office directing media questions on immigration and population trends to other ministers.

Statistics Canada has said its population estimates are revised as more information becomes available, including data from border movements and administrative sources.

The agency has also noted that estimating departures remains one of the most challenging aspects of population accounting.

As millions of temporary permits approach their expiry dates over the next year, analysts say it remains unclear how many people will leave Canada, transition to other legal statuses or remain in the country without authorization.