Poll: strong Conservative support for Poilievre ahead of leadership review
A new survey suggests Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is here to stay, with no other Tory contender currently able to outperform him. In fact, most would do worse.
A new survey suggests Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is here to stay, with no other Tory contender currently able to outperform him. In fact, most would do worse.
Pierre Poilievre faces a mandatory leadership review in January, a challenge he is confident he will survive. A recent Abacus Data survey supports this outcome.
“Among Conservative voters in 2025, Poilievre’s net score is a towering +70, a sign that he isn’t just tolerated by his party’s base but embraced. Among Canadians who are open to voting Conservative, his net rating is +59. Even among those not yet committed to the party, he is seen more favourably than not, though with some hesitation built in,” the survey states.
The survey was conducted the week before the Liberals released Budget 2025, which led to former Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossing the floor and subsequent claims of party turmoil.
However, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said the Liberals had been courting d’Entremont for five years.
“We’ve been trying to recruit him for a long time,” Joly told reporters last week. “Finally, he saw the light.”
D’Entremont claimed the party was a toxic environment under Poilievre’s leadership. However, Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer claimed d’Entremont’s falling out with the party came after the Conservative caucus refused to back him for Speaker of the House of Commons.
“Pierre Poilievre’s public image is defined by polarity. Among all Canadians at the time of this survey, 43 per cent hold a positive view of him while 46 per cent view him negatively, leaving him with a net favourable rating of –3. But that average masks deep variation across partisan, regional, and demographic lines,” the survey continued.
Regionally, Poilievre holds the most support in Alberta, followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba. His support is weakest in Quebec.
Older voters, particularly those aged 60 and older, are “especially wary,” while voters under 60 tend to “view him more favourably or are at least divided.”
When asked how they would feel about the Conservative party if someone else were to lead, 29 per cent of Canadians said they would be more likely to vote Conservative, compared with 12 per cent who said less likely. Meanwhile, 46 per cent said it “would make no difference.”
“That 17-point ‘more likely’ margin is striking. It suggests a theoretical opportunity for the party to expand its support under a different leader. But it’s also a cautionary note: Poilievre may repel some voters, but he mobilizes many others. That dynamic is hard to replicate,” the survey reads.
“Among 2025 Conservative voters, 58 per cent say they’d be just as likely to vote for the party without him. But about 10 per cent say they’d be less likely to do so, suggesting a portion of the party’s vote is more Poilievre than Conservative.”
Regarding the 29 per cent of Canadians who would be more likely to vote Conservative if Poilievre were not leader, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto cautioned against strategists acting on this cohort.
According to Coletto, “a generic response to a hypothetical question is one thing. Real electoral scenarios are another.”
“These numbers confirm a simple truth: Poilievre defines the current Conservative brand, for better or worse,” he wrote.