Poll finds Liberal win would lead to spike in separatist sentiments across Canada

A new poll suggests that Canadian unity may be at stake in this federal election.

Source: RawPixel

A new poll suggests that Canadian unity may be at stake in this federal election. As western provinces feel less and less respected by the nation, almost a third of residents in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec would vote for their provinces to become independent if the Liberals win the upcoming election according to a recent survey.

If the Liberals don’t win the next election, almost one in three Quebecers still want to separate. A quarter of Albertans and two in ten Saskatchewanians say the same.

A Sunday poll from the Angus Reid Institute highlighted that the eastern provinces are far less willing to separate.

Between December 2024 and March 2025, those in Alberta and Saskatchewan who felt respected by the rest of the country declined, with a notable 14-point drop in Saskatchewan.

The level of respect Albertans feel from the rest of the country is the lowest it’s been since the first poll was conducted in September 2016.

Those in Saskatchewan reported the lowest level of fair treatment by the federal government. Conversely, Ontario residents feel the most fairly treated.

Despite numerous Canadians desiring separation, the poll highlighted that the separatist movement was larger in 2019 when six in ten Albertans and 53 per cent of Saskatchewanians were open to the concept of a Western Canadian separatist movement.

Residents of Saskatchewan were most likely to feel that the only way to be heard was to threaten separation, followed closely by those in Alberta.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently made a list of demands to Liberal Party of Canada Leader Mark Carney to avoid “an unprecedented unity crisis.” Some of the demands have already been disregarded, like Carney supporting Bill C-69.

The poll highlighted that former official opposition leader Preston Manning and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe similarly said that national unity was a ballot issue in the upcoming election.

In an op-ed in the Globe and Mail, Manning said that Eastern Canadians “need to recognize that a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession — a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.”

As for actually voting yes in a referendum to leave the country, Quebecers were the most willing. Still, a quarter of Albertans think the province should become its own country, and 22 per cent think Alberta should join the United States.

Alberta and Quebec recently pledged to team up to fight federal overreach, with Quebec noting its excitement to team up with any other province willing to engage.

The majority of Bloc Québécois supporters want Quebec to become its own independent country, while more than a quarter of those planning to vote Conservative want their province to join the United States.

However, if the Liberals form government, 39 per cent of Conservative voters want their province to become its own independent country, while 42 per cent want their province to join the United States.

Because Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently made headlines for meeting with The Daily Wire founder Ben Shapiro, the poll dedicated an entire section to her.

The most support for Smith’s attempt at collaboration through American influencers came from Saskatchewan, with the majority of its residents thinking she was defending Canada by keeping an open dialogue with Americans. However, nationwide, just over half of Canadians think she is betraying her country by engaging with Americans.

Following her meeting with Shapiro, he voiced his opposition to tariffs against Canada and praised the country.

Almost seven in ten Conservatives thought Smith was defending Canada, while the vast majority of Liberal and NDP supporters saw it as a betrayal.