Poll: Eby ahead of Rustad by 7%, gaining ground with youth, male voters
A new Abacus Data survey suggests Premier David Eby’s BC NDP has gained a seven percent lead over the provincial Conservatives, buoyed by growing support among youth and male voters.
A new Abacus Data survey suggests Premier David Eby’s BC NDP has gained a seven percent lead over the provincial Conservatives, buoyed by growing support among youth and male voters.
The poll was released the same day that BC Conservative MLA Amelia Boultbee announced she would be leaving caucus, citing the “failed leadership” of the party’s leader.
The poll of 1,000 eligible voters found 40 percent approve of the NDP government’s performance compared to 31 percent who disapprove, giving Eby a nine-point net positive rating.
While nearly half of respondents still believe the province is “headed in the wrong direction,” the sentiment hasn’t yet translated into support for the opposition or its embattled leader, John Rustad.
Based on the Abacus survey, more than a dozen BC Conservative MLAs would risk losing their seats if an election were called tomorrow with Rustad as leader.
One BC Conservative MLA, who left the party caucus Monday morning, described Rustad as “unravelling,” citing growing divisions and doubts about his leadership.
Those doubts come amid stalled growth for the party, numerous controversies over party members and staffers being muzzled, monitored or fired, along with the rise of smaller right-leaning splinter parties such as OneBC.
Support for the BC NDP remains strongest among voters under 30 and seniors over 65. However, the party now also leads narrowly among men, a group that has drifted toward the Conservatives in recent cycles.
Despite the stronger numbers for the party, however, Premier David Eby’s personal approval rating remains low.
In a different poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute earlier this fall, Eby tied for the second least popular provincial leader in the country
“British Columbians remain uneasy about the direction of the province, but that unease isn’t yet consolidating behind an alternative,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto in a statement. “The NDP still benefits from a relatively positive perception of Premier Eby’s leadership and disarray on the right.”
Despite economic anxiety and regional discontent, Eby’s government enters the fall legislative session in what pollsters describe as a “relatively strong but not unassailable” position.
The BC NDP’s lead, rooted in urban and generational support, could quickly narrow if Conservatives stabilize under Rustad or if a new opposition figure consolidates the right.
The online survey was conducted between Oct. 9 and 15 among a representative sample of 1,000 eligible BC voters.
A comparable probability sample would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.