Poilievre and Carney remain deadlocked in new poll
Carney is still failing to convince Canadians that the country is headed in the right direction, with deep economic anxiety dominating the public mood in the polls.
Despite a slight bump in support after his budget passed, Prime Minister Mark Carney is still failing to convince Canadians that the country is headed in the right direction, with deep economic anxiety dominating the public mood in the polls.
The Abacus Data poll was conducted between Nov. 20 and 27, just days after the Liberals narrowly managed to pass Budget 2025.
While the latest survey found Canadians’ approval of the federal government’s performance increased from 44 per cent to 48 per cent from earlier this month, the results revealed “an electorate that remains firmly divided between the Liberals and Conservatives.”
Disapproval of the Carney government came in at 32 per cent.
“If the goal of the budget was to shift momentum or reset the political narrative, that has not yet materialized. What we’re seeing is more a modest repositioning than a political turning point,” reads the survey.
There has been a sizable jump in the cohort of Canadians who now believe the country is heading in the right direction, from 31 per cent at the beginning of last month to 37 per cent by the end of November.
“However, the overall mood remains cautious. Nearly half (48 per cent) still believe Canada is on the wrong track, and 15 per cent are unsure. These are not figures that suggest a broadly confident electorate. Rather, they reveal an incremental improvement among voters who may be reassessing the government but are not yet convinced,” it said.
“Notably, views of the broader global context remain deeply negative. Only 15 per cent of Canadians believe the world is headed in the right direction, and just 13 per cent say the same of the United States. These numbers have been largely unchanged for the past year and continue to frame a context of global instability in which domestic politics unfold.”
Optimism is highest in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and lowest in Alberta and the Prairies.
Canada’s high cost of living has remained the top concern for all respondents, regardless of their political leanings, followed by the economy and healthcare.
Housing affordability and immigration were the remaining top-of-mind concerns for Canadians, while concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration fell over the past month.
However, it still remained a larger concern for respondents than crime or climate change.
As individuals, both Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre saw their favourability ratings improve slightly.
“Among Conservative voters, Pierre Poilievre’s leadership remains strongly supported. Sixty-four per cent of current Conservative supporters say they would vote to keep him as leader (75 per cent among decided CPC voters), compared to just 22 per cent who would vote to remove him,” reads the survey.
“This 42-point margin suggests that Poilievre largely retains the confidence of his party’s base, although not universally.”
Poilievre will face a mandatory leadership review in January. However, only card-carrying delegate members will ultimately be allowed to vote regarding the future leadership of the party.
“We continue to see a significant gap between how Canadians perceive Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. On nearly every metric we tested — personality, trust, motivation, and leadership qualities — Carney comes out ahead,” said Abacus Date CEO David Coletto.
“But here is what is most striking. Carney’s personal advantage is not yet reshaping voter behaviour. Despite stronger approval ratings, more favourable impressions, and higher levels of trust, the Liberal vote share has only increased slightly. The race remains neck and neck. This speaks to a deeper political inertia in the electorate. Nothing has changed from the near deadlocked April election.”