OP-ED: Carney’s Palestinian misstep collides with Canada’s interests

Dotan Rousso writes, "Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state is not likely to shift facts on the ground. It won’t stop the war. It won’t create a viable Palestinian government."

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Author: Dotan Rousso

On July 31, 2025, President Donald Trump posted the following warning on Truth Social:

“Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them.”

That same day, the White House followed through with action. Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on select Canadian imports from 25% to 35%, effective August 1. Though the order mentioned broader political disagreements, senior administration officials confirmed that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to support Palestinian statehood played a key role in the breakdown of trade discussions.

This reaction may appear puzzling to many Canadians. After all, Canada’s declaration was largely symbolic—offering conditional recognition based on Palestinian elections, demilitarization, and the exclusion of Hamas. It echoed similar statements from European leaders. Why would the United States—our largest trading partner—respond so aggressively?

To understand this, one must recognize the depth and strategic nature of the U.S.–Israel alliance. This relationship is one of the strongest bilateral partnerships in the world, grounded in decades of military, economic, and geopolitical cooperation. From Washington’s perspective, Israel is not simply a moral or ideological ally—it is a cornerstone of American strategy in the Middle East.

The region remains a global flashpoint. It supplies approximately 30% of the world’s oil, controls critical trade routes, and remains a hub for terrorism, regional warfare, and nuclear tension. While the U.S. has become more energy-independent, it still depends on global oil flows and regional stability to safeguard its economic and military interests.

In a region dominated by autocracies, divided states, and warring factions, Israel stands alone as a stable, democratic, technologically advanced partner. It is a vital source of intelligence, innovation, and strategic leverage for the U.S. in containing Iranian aggression and preventing the spread of extremist movements.

From this vantage point, Canada’s move—especially while the war in Gaza is ongoing—was seen not as a peace-building gesture, but as a reward for terrorism. It risks undermining ceasefire negotiations, emboldening Hamas, and sending a signal that violence can lead to international legitimacy. To the Trump administration, this isn’t just a slap at Israel—it’s a blow to American interests.

This leads to a hard question Canadians must now ask: Was it worth it?

Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state is not likely to shift facts on the ground. It won’t stop the war. It won’t create a viable Palestinian government. Its value is symbolic—an expression of political sentiment. But the potential fallout is real: tariffs, trade disruption, loss of access to U.S. markets, and economic consequences that ordinary Canadians may feel in everything from agriculture and manufacturing to household goods.

Whether this move reflects the misjudgment of a politically inexperienced leader or signals a deeper lack of clarity, judgment, and commitment to prioritizing Canadian national interests is an open question. Time will tell if this was merely a step in Mark Carney’s learning curve—or a symptom of a broader political deficiency that could carry lasting consequences for Canada’s global standing and economic stability.