Ontario mortgage delinquencies hit decade high

Ontario mortgage delinquencies continue to see an uptick, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, according to a report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Ontario mortgage delinquencies continue to see an uptick, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, according to a report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Mortgage delinquencies rose by 0.22 per cent in the first quarter of this year, up from 0.15 per cent in the same timeframe last year, and 0.09 per cent in the first four months of 2023.

Toronto was hit the hardest by mortgage delinquencies, marking the highest mortgage delinquencies have been in Toronto since early 2013.

Canada’s largest city saw a 0.23 per cent jump in delinquencies in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 0.14 per cent for the first quarter of last year.

The latest data nearly triples 0.08 per cent increase Toronto faced for the first quarter of 2023.

Provincially, delinquency rates are at the highest levels since 2016.

The data, gathered by Equifax, tracked the volume of 90-day mortgage delinquencies, including defaults and late payments.

According to Equifax, more than 11,000 mortgages in Ontario recorded a missed payment in the final quarter of last year.

There are nearly 7 million outstanding mortgages in Canada, meaning a 0.22 per cent increase would translate into roughly 15,259 mortgages that have fallen behind in payments.

The number of delinquencies is likely to rise further as more than half of Canadian mortgage holders will face increased monthly payments when their loans are renewed this year and next.

The Bank of Canada released a report earlier this month that “about 60 per cent of all outstanding mortgages in Canada are expected to renew in 2025 or 2026.”

Compared with December 2024 payments, the average monthly mortgage payment could be 10 per cent higher for those renewing in 2025 and 6 per cent higher for those renewing in 2026.

According to the Bank of Canada, despite recent declines in interest rates, mortgage holders will likely see their payments increase over the next two years, particularly those holding a five-year, fixed-rate mortgage.

Of the aforementioned 60 per cent, about 75 per cent hold fixed-rate mortgages, which are likely to see payment increases between 15 and 20 per cent on average.

However, for homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage that adjusts on a monthly basis, payments are projected to decrease by five to seven per cent.

Meanwhile, those holding variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments may face different changes, with about 10 per cent facing increases of more than 40 per cent in 2026, while another cohort of 25 per cent may see decreases of at least seven per cent.

The Bank of Canada said that borrowers facing payment increases at renewal are expected to see a sharper rise in their mortgage debt service ratio than those poised to see payment decreases.