Ontario housing market poised to take another hit this year

Ontario’s housing market is bracing for a significant drop this year, with real estate experts advising buyers to hold off as prices are expected to plummet in the coming months.

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Ontario’s housing market is bracing for a significant drop this year, with real estate experts advising buyers to hold off as prices are expected to plummet in the coming months.

The Toronto Region Real Estate Board anticipates that the 6.4 per cent drop in Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home prices seen last year will repeat in 2026.

Despite a multi-decade low, the average GTA home still sold for $1,039,458 in 2025, even with the composite benchmark price down 5.8 per cent.

The Board also noted that only 5,010 homes changed hands in November, a 15.8 per cent decrease from the same month in 2024.

Still, many potential buyers are looking to capitalize on lower selling prices and redacted borrowing costs.

The GTA is also offering more options than in previous years, with a 16.8 per cent increase in inventory by the end of the year.

Nation-wide, the aggregate price of a home is still expected to increase 1.0 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to Royal Lepage’s 2026 Outlook.

“Nationally, single-family detached prices are forecast to increase 2.0 per cent year over year in Q4 of 2026, while condominiums are projected to decline 2.5 per cent over the same period,” reads the report.

“The aggregate home price in the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver is expected to decrease 4.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively, while prices in the Greater Montreal Area are forecast to rise 5.0 per cent.”

Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper noted that lower interest rates and increased supply, and reduced competition have “created a more favourable environment for consumers“

“First-time buyers and those searching in the country’s most expensive regions have a rare window to act on their home ownership plans at reduced prices,” said Soper. “While we don’t expect a sharp rebound, this improved affordability will rebuild market confidence among both buyers and sellers, setting the stage for more sustainable, albeit modest, price growth in 2026.”

According to the report’s forecast, for the second year in a row, Quebec City is expected to see the highest gains among all major regions this year, with the aggregate home price expected to rise 12.0 per cent.