Multiple models show floor-crossing Liberal MP Michael Ma at serious risk of losing seat
Floor crosser and Liberal MP Michael Ma appears to be at serious risk of losing his seat in Markham–Unionville, according to multiple election projection models released this week.
Floor crosser and Liberal MP Michael Ma appears to be at serious risk of losing his seat in Markham–Unionville, according to multiple election projection models released this week.
Data from 338Canada shows the riding as highly competitive, with the Conservatives holding a narrow edge within the margin of error. The model places Conservative support at roughly 49 per cent compared to 47 per cent for the Liberals, indicating a toss-up but one that currently leans Conservative.
Polling models are not predictions and remain subject to change as new data emerges.
Ma first won the seat in 2025 as a Conservative before crossing the floor to join the Liberals. As a result of his decision, Ma has faced protests outside of his Markham constituency office.
Meanwhile, polling model, Poliwave, which incorporates recent Mainstreet Research polling, identifies Markham–Unionville as leaning Conservative by a 14.1% margin.
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