Liberals deride PBO’s report predicting 54K jobs lost from emissions cap

The Liberals are once again at odds with the Parliamentary Budget Officer after a new report concluded the federal emissions cap target will lead to devastating job losses and a $20.5 billion drop...

Source: Facebook

The Liberals are once again at odds with the Parliamentary Budget Officer after a new report concluded the federal emissions cap target will lead to devastating job losses and a $20.5 billion drop in Canada’s gross domestic product in 2032.

Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson dismissed the report, accusing the PBO of wasting the government’s time and taxpayers’ money, calling the report’s findings a “made-up scenario.”

“The PBO is once again misleading the public and ignoring reality,” said Wilkinson in an X post on Wednesday.

“Governments and industry themselves agree on the potential of technically achievable carbon capture technologies to cut pollution from the oil and gas industry, while production of oil and gas increases, and thousands of good jobs are created.”

However, the PBO created the report in response to parliamentary requests and based its calculations on the government’s “proposed regulations to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector” published in November 2024.

The report concluded a net loss of Canada GDP by 0.39 per cent in 2032 and the elimination of as many as 54,400 jobs.

Director of energy, natural resources and environment with the MacDonald-Laurier Institute Heather Exner-Pirot, called on the federal government to publish its Environment and Climate Change Canada modelling.

She said releasing such data would settle any discrepancies between the PBO’s report, the private sector and the Liberals’ claims.

“S&P Global, Deloitte, CBoC, and now PBO have all said the emissions cap will cost tens of billions in GDP & tens of thousands of jobs. The federal govt insists they’re all wrong,” said Exner-Pirot in a post to X.

“They can clear it up by releasing the ECCC model, which taxpayers haven’t been able to scrutinize yet.”

The PBO noted that the government would need to reduce “conventional oil production, oil sands production, and natural gas production and processing” by 4.9 per cent between 2030 to 2032 to meet the necessary target.

“That said, under the proposed oil and gas emissions cap regulations, total production from these upstream subsectors is projected to be 11.1 per cent higher, on average, over 2030 to 2032 compared to current levels,” reads the report.

According to the PBO, the potential economic benefits of reducing Canada’s emissions “based on the social cost of carbon would largely accrue to residents in other countries.”

However, the agency went on to say that such benefits were worth further studying in a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed oil and gas emissions cap regulations and not dismissed.

“At a time when Canadians and Canadian businesses are facing high economic uncertainty, largely because of the constant threat of tariffs, the last thing we need is to further destabilize jobs and investment with poor policy. The economic costs are simply too high,” said Deborah Yedlin, president and CEO at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce in a statement Wednesday.

“Instead of imposing a rigid and punitive cap that restricts investment and puts energy security in a vulnerable place, we need policies that work with industry to accelerate emissions reduction efforts; attracts new investment; and protects jobs, our energy security, and our prosperity.”