If those aged 60 and up were excluded from the vote, Conservatives would have a majority government if the election were held today.
An Abacus Data poll published Sunday found that the Liberals currently hold a 12-point lead over the Conservatives.
A deeper look at the data, however, shows that younger Canadians aged 18 to 29 years old (Gen Z) and those aged 30-44 (Millennials) would vote for Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party, while those aged 60 and up (Baby Boomers) and those in the 45-59 range (Gen X) support the Liberal government.
Sarah Fischer, the director of communications for the Conservative Party, posited that the generational divide in voting intention shows that younger generations are more likely to feel the brunt of a decade of Liberal government, while older generations are more insulated from the stagnant economy.
“Younger generations are bearing the brunt and paying the price for a decade of bloated government, high taxes and inflation, high unemployment, soaring housing, food and fuel costs, and out-of-control immigration levels,” she said in a post on X.
“They are entering adulthood in a country where the basic milestones previous generations took for granted, like a good job, an affordable home, starting a family young and building wealth, are increasingly out of reach.”
The pollsters, who asked 2,744 Canadian adults in a double opt-in survey panel from September 18-23, reported that the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size would be plus or minus 1.87 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
According to the poll data, if only Gen Z voted, the Conservatives would have a majority government with 187 seats against the Liberals’ 108 seats.
Among Canadians aged 60 and over, the Liberals currently lead 59 per cent to the Conservatives’ 26 per cent. For those aged 45 to 59, 47 per cent would vote Liberal and 35 per cent would cast their votes for Poilievre’s Conservatives.
The younger generations of Canadians, on average, however, would vote Conservative.
Among 18- to 29-year-olds, the Conservatives would garner 42 per cent of the popular vote, while the same generation would give the Liberals 32 per cent, and the NDP 15 per cent.
Among those aged 30 to 44, the Conservatives would receive 39 per cent, the Liberals 36 per cent, and the NDP 14 per cent.
Without adjusting for age groups, however, Abacus Data reported that if an election were held today, 46 per cent of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34 per cent Conservative, 9 per cent for the NDP, 7 per cent for the Bloc Québécois, 2 per cent for the Green Party, 1 per cent for the People’s Party, and 1 per cent for “another party.”
A poll from the same polling organization two weeks ago found that the Liberal lead was 14 points, with the Liberals at 47 per cent and the Conservatives at 33 per cent.
“Mark Carney’s personal standing has strengthened more noticeably. Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister and twenty-five per cent have a negative one,” the poll states. “His net impression is now +31 – the highest we have measured for Carney since we began tracking him. “
When observing the perceived direction Canada is going, 48 per cent of Canadians said they now believe the country is heading in the right direction, up from 45 per cent two weeks ago.
While just 39 per cent think Canada is on the “wrong track,” down from 41 per cent two weeks ago.
I feel dirtied by this revelation that people of my generation support the Weasel. Perhaps the 'grey' in their 'brain' cells has shifted to their hair.