EXCLUSIVE POLL: Cracks appear in the Liberal lead as Carney’s scandals take their toll

Since the last Juno Poll, while the national ballot numbers are essentially unchanged, cracks are starting to emerge in impressions of Mark Carney and the Liberal Party.

Since the last Juno Poll, the national ballot numbers are essentially unchanged but cracks are starting to emerge in Canada’s impression of Mark Carney and the Liberal Party as a result of the Liberal leader’s multiple scandals.

Carney’s Liberals hold 42% support among decided voters, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives sit at 33%, according to the latest poll commissioned by Juno News and conducted by ONE Persuasion. This is more or less unchanged from last week, when our poll found the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 36%.

The week’s poll found the NDP at 11%, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) at 10%, the Green Party at 3%, and other parties at 2%.

This week, we decided to dig into the impact of Carney’s recent scandals. We took the two biggest scandals involving Carney at the time (undisclosed assets in tax havens and University plagiarism) and asked people what impact these had on their impression of him.

Overall, these scandals had a net impression score of -36 on Carney. This means that while 7% said their impression of Carney improved, 43% said it worsened. The lower the net score, the more impactful the scandal.

Interestingly, Carney’s net impression score is -8 with Liberal voters. Usually, when scandals occur, the party leader’s own party supporters maintain a positive net impression score.

Undecided voters also have a net negative impression score of these scandals, with a score of -35.

The demographic with the most negative net impression score are Females 18-34 at -53.

On their own, these numbers are not enough to change the direction of the campaign but they do confirm two things: first, that the Conservative and increasingly BQ vote is solidifying and quite firm, and second, that Carney’s unforced errors are damaging him with soft Liberal voters.

Support for a political party is always the last indicator to move. Worsening impressions of leaders are top indicators which filter down and impact ballot support over time. The decision to support a given political party is not formed in a vacuum. There are many factors Canadians consider when deciding whom to vote for.

Here are the crosstabs for our April 2 poll:

We have been exploring preferred prime minister for a while, which is starting to show movement within both Liberal and Conservative voters. Mark Carney (41%) leads Pierre Poilievre (26%) for best Prime Minister. This is nearly identical to the last poll. Carney’s biggest fans are older Canadians (55 and older), 50% of whom choose him as the best PM compared to 32% for older men and 21% for older women who choose Poilievre.

Among Liberal supporters, 86% believe Carney would be the best prime minister, compared to 89% last round. Among Conservative supporters, 84% believe Poilievre would be the best prime minister, compared to 80% last round.

Carney’s strong numbers in Quebec are evaporating in the wake of his pulling out of the TVA debate. The Bloc (40%) increased their lead, with the Liberals (35%) in second place, and the Conservatives (18%) dropped slightly, remaining in third place. Among anglophone Quebecers, the Liberals (71%) hold their traditional lead over the Conservatives (20%), with the Bloc at 2%. Among francophone Quebecers, the Bloc (46%) holds a strong lead over the Liberals (29%) and Conservatives (17%). If the Liberals keep falling in Quebec, they will start to lose seats.

In battleground Ontario, both the Liberals (48%) and Conservatives (34%) remain very close to where they were last week, with the NDP (13%) bringing up the rear.

Regionally, the Atlantic provinces prefer the Liberals (61%) with the Conservatives (29%) in second and NDP far behind. On the Prairies, the Conservatives (51%) maintain their big lead ahead of the Liberals (32%) and the NDP (12%) in third. British Columbia shows a narrower margin: the Liberals (41%) still lead the Conservatives (36%), with the NDP (16%) in third.

ONE Persuasion's proprietary seat projection model gives the Liberals 188 seats and the Conservatives 109. The Bloc would stand to secure 39 seats, the NDP 5, and the Greens 2. This would result in a Liberal majority government.

Campaigns are always dynamic. Unexpected events happen, many decisions are made in quick succession, and some pan out better than others. As the campaign continues to unfold, scandals like the ones mentioned, and others like the Paul Chiang saga, could prove to be a key driver of votes away from Carney.

It’s still early days in the campaign.

ELECTIONS CANADA REQUIREMENTS

• (a) the name and address of the sponsor of the survey;

• Juno News

• (b) the name and address of the person or organization that conducted the survey;

• ONE Persuasion inc. 116 Albert Street Suite 300, Ottawa Ontario, K1P 5G3

• (c) the date on which or the period during which the survey was conducted;

• March 31, 2025 thru April 1, 2025

• (d) information about the method used to collect the data from which the survey results are derived, including

  • (i) the sampling method,

  • Online Panel

  • (ii) the population from which the sample was drawn,

  • General Population - Canada

  • (iii) the size of the initial sample,

  • 1,508

  • (iv) the number of individuals who were asked to participate in the survey and the numbers and respective percentages of them who participated in the survey, refused to participate in the survey, and were ineligible to participate in the survey,

  • Since this is a sample from an online panel, this is not applicable.

  • (v) the dates and time of day of the interviews,

  • March 31 2025 thru April 1, 2025

  • (vi) the method used to recalculate data to take into account in the survey the results of participants who expressed no opinion, were undecided or failed to respond to any or all of the survey questions, and

  • This poll expresses decided voters only.

  • (vii) any weighting factors or normalization procedures used in deriving the results of the survey; and

  • The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region, along with regional 2021 federal vote. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

• (e) the wording of the survey questions and, if applicable, the margins of error in respect of the data obtained.

  Q1. If a federal election were held today, which party's candidate would you vote for?

  • [RANDOMIZE]

  • Conservative Party of Canada

  • Liberal Party of Canada

  • New Democratic Party (NDP)

  • Green Party of Canada

  • Bloc Quebecois (QC only)

  • Other or independent

  • Don't know [PIN]

  • Won't vote [PIN]

    Q2. Who did you vote for in the last federal election held in September 2021?

  • [RANDOMIZE]

  • Conservative Party of Canada

  • Liberal Party of Canada

  • New Democratic Party (NDP)

  • Green Party of Canada

  • Bloc Quebecois (QC only)

  • People's Party of Canada (PPC)

  • Other or independent

  • Can't remember [PIN]

  • Didn't vote [PIN]

    Q3. Who do you think will make the Best Prime Minister of Canada

  • [RANDOMIZE]

  • Pierre Poilievre

  • Mark Carney

  • Jagmeet Singh

  • Yves-François Blanchet (QC only)

  • Elizabeth May

  • None of them [PIN]
    
    Q4. Mark Carney has refused to publicly disclose his assets and investments in tax havens. He has been exposed as having plagiarised part of his doctoral thesis while in university. How have these revelations impacted your impression of Mark Carney?

  • Greatly improved your impression of Mark Carney

  • Moderately improved your impression of Mark Carney

  • Made no difference to your impression of Mark Carney

  • Moderately worsened your impression of Mark Carney

  • Greatly worsened your impression of Mark Carney

  • Never heard of these issues with Mark Carney