New poll shows Conservatives would form clear majority

A new Abacus Data poll indicates the Conservatives are maintaining their big lead over the incumbent Liberals and would still form a majority government in the next federal election.

Source: Facebook

Author: Isaac Lamoureux

A new Abacus Data poll indicates the Conservatives are maintaining their big lead over the incumbent Liberals and would still form a majority government in the next federal election.

In fact, the Abacus poll showed the Conservatives’ vote share had increased three per cent since Jan. 27 and now stands at 46 per cent. The NDP lost the same amount of support; however, the Liberals gained five per cent in that time frame as other smaller parties like the Bloc Québécois lost footing.

The pollsters at Abacus were surprised by the recent poll data, considering other pollsters were telling different stories recently. To validate their data, they ran a second poll.

“Given how these results differ from some recent polls, we conducted a rapid survey with our core political questions from February 11 to 12, 2025 with an entirely new sample to see whether this survey was an outlier or different than what we would find if we did another survey,” reads the survey.

Both the polls from Feb. 5-11 and Feb. 11-12 showed the Conservatives would clearly form a majority government.

Vote intention favoured the Conservatives in every province and region except for Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals had a one-per-cent lead over the Conservatives.

The Conservatives had the largest lead among Alberta voters, where 74 per cent of Albertans intend to vote Conservative, followed by the NDP at 14 per cent and the Liberals at 9 per cent.

Abacus also highlighted how Canadians’ perspectives have changed since 2021.

The Conservatives had the highest vote retention, with 89 per cent of those who voted for the party in 2021 remaining loyal. The NDP and Liberals would each retain 60 per cent of their previous voters.

For those who voted Liberal and NDP in 2021, 15 per cent and 14 per cent would now vote for the Conservatives, respectively.

The Conservatives also had the biggest share of supporters who did not vote in 2021, at 20 per cent.

However, like other recent polls, the latest Abacus polling showed that the Liberals would fare best with Carney at the helm — they would receive 28 per cent of the vote, well behind the 45 per cent of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. With Freeland leading the Liberals, this would fall to 21 per cent.

In an exclusive interview with True North, Poilievre suggested Carney would push for a snap election to capitalize on his political honeymoon and avoid scrutiny. Still, it may be to his own peril if this polling holds true.

Polling aggregator 338Canada similarly showed the Conservatives with 42 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent and NDP at 16 per cent as of Thursday.

Based on their combined polling, the Conservatives would win 205 seats — well above the 172 required for a majority — winning every province except Quebec.