Prime Minister Mark Carney says it would be “irresponsible” not to prepare for the possibility of U.S. military action against Canada — even as he describes the scenario as an “extreme tail risk.”
In an interview with The New York Times published Wednesday, Carney said he had examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada, describing it as an “extreme tail risk.”
“That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare for the possibility, Carney told the newspaper.
He characterized the exercise as “just risk management.”
The comments come amid months of tensions between Ottawa and Washington over trade and U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state.
Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of Canada joining the United States, but he has not publicly threatened to invade Canada to make it happen.
During a January 2025 press conference, Trump was explicitly asked whether he was considering military force to “annex and acquire Canada.”
“No — economic force,” Trump responded.
Trump later described the prospect of using military force against Canada as “highly unlikely.”
Carney’s comments also come just weeks after a senior U.S. military commander ridiculed the prospect of an American invasion.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, was asked during a September press conference in Victoria, B.C., whether he would obey an order from Trump to attack Canada.
“I find that scenario to be absolutely and utterly preposterous,” Paparo responded. “I follow the orders of the commander-in-chief, but that is a needlessly emotional question.”
“Would you ask me, please, also, what my attack plans are for the Martians?” he added.
When the reporter accused Paparo of dismissing the question, the admiral doubled down.
“I don’t dismiss you, but I do dismiss the question,” he said.
Paparo nevertheless stressed that Canada remains a “close” and “indispensable” U.S. ally and said military relations between the two countries remained strong despite political tensions.
“While you do see political discussions take place, for military professionals, we’re always ruthlessly focused on the mission ahead,” he said.
Trump’s 51st-state rhetoric has been a recurring political issue in Canada since late 2024.
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told business leaders in February 2025 that Trump’s interest in absorbing Canada was a “real thing,” suggesting the president was interested in Canada’s critical minerals and other resources.
However, Dominic LeBlanc, who attended Trudeau’s November 2024 dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, later characterized Trump’s early annexation comments differently.
“It was, of course, on that issue in no way a serious comment,” LeBlanc said.
Carney faced questions over Trump’s 51st-state rhetoric during the 2025 election after initially saying Trump respected Canadian sovereignty in a March 28 call, before acknowledging the president had raised the idea.
“It will never happen,” Carney said.
After the election, Trump and Carney agreed the countries should work together “as independent, sovereign nations,” while Carney told Trump at their May White House meeting that Canada was “not for sale.”
Relations later deteriorated over trade.
Carney suspended negotiations in August 2026 after rejecting U.S. demands, and in September, told Washington to “stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough and start being serious.”
Carney is an embarassment to Canada.
Anyone in lieberal kanada, who believes harpo on -Anything- , needs to sign up for at least a couple of afternoons of electroshock therapy. This power hungry buffoon has the keys to power in kanada? Horrendous state of affairs.