Canadian families to spend over $17K on groceries next year: report

Canadians can expect to pay even more for groceries next year, with the average family of four paying an estimated $994.63 more for food in 2026, according to the latest Food Price Report.

Source: Rawpixel

Canadians can expect to pay even more for groceries next year, with the average family of four paying an estimated $994.63 more for food in 2026, according to the latest Food Price Report.

The Agri-food analytics lab at Dalhousie University published its report on Thursday, in partnership with several other universities.

“Despite steadier inflation, Canadian families are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store,” said Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, project lead at Dalhousie University. “Our forecast for 2026 makes one thing clear: food affordability will remain a major pressure point in the year ahead.”

The report projects that a family of four will pay a total of $17,571.79 for groceries next year.

“Food prices are 27 per cent higher than they were five years ago,” reads the report. “Annual food price increases are currently within the range predicted in the 2025 report (4 per cent), however meat increased at a faster rate than predicted (5 per cent to 7 per cent).”

Provincially, Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, and Quebec are expected to see the highest food price increases next year, surpassing what will be the new national average.

“Prices are only one piece of Canada’s complex food industry story. Prices increase year over year, but reports like this one help us understand that our food sits in the middle of shifting disputes, behaviours, and policies,” said Dr. Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph.

“It remains critical that we continue to collaborate across Canada to track new trends, because affordable access to food is a matter of security.”

The cost of beef skyrocketed this year, with a 19 per cent increase in the first quarter alone. While the price has since stabilized over the course of 2025, prices were still up 23 per cent from the five-year average.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre highlighted the difference in family grocery bills since the Liberals initially took office in 2015, rising from $8,286 per year to $17,572, a 112 per cent increase.

“While all food prices will experience slight increases, meat and beef witnessed the largest increase,” said Dr. Stuart Smyth, Campus Lead, University of Saskatchewan.

“Nearly a decade of drought in the leading beef producing area of Canada has resulted in the smallest number of cattle since the late 1980s. Reduced supply and consistent demand creates upward pressure. Canadian beef is high quality and consumers intending to keep buying it will need to be increasingly conscious of optimum purchasing opportunities.”

Meanwhile, the price of chicken is also set to increase substantially next year. This is in part due to customer demand rising in relation to the higher cost of beef.

Canada’s food manufacturing industry has also been downsizing, with thousands of workers being laid off at major food-producing corporations, including Kraft-Heinz and Dr. Pepper Kellogg.

“The volume of food sold in Canada has reduced considerably and production costs have risen, leading to a 1.9 per cent decrease in food manufacturing growth,” reads the report.

“Food inflation is putting Canadians under a lot of pressure, forcing people to make trade-offs every day. These trade-offs range from switching to a cheaper brand to delaying making purchases altogether,” said Dr. Stacey Taylor of Cape Breton University. “Not only is there an issue with food security, but there is also a lot of concern over nutritional security and being able to afford a healthy diet.”

The price hike comes at a time when one in four Canadian households are already facing food insecurity, which includes going entire days without food or worrying about running out of supplies at home.

Food Banks Canada reported a 40 per cent increase in food insecurity over the last two years.