Another floor-crosser! Mark Carney’s path to an unelected majority government
An NDP MP pushes Carney one seat closer to a majority. Carney sets the date for three by-elections on April 13. Candice is joined by pollster and Conservative insider David Murray to break it all down
On today’s episode of the Candice Malcolm Show, Candice breaks down the big news from Tuesday night – that Nunavut MP Lori Idlout has crossed the floor from the NDP to join the Liberals. Idlout is the fourth MP to switch parties and join the Liberals in the last six months. Candice discusses the political fall-out, including NDP interim leader Don Davis demanding a by-election.
Candice is joined by David Murray, Senior Vice President at One Persuasion and Conservative Party insider who served as Juno News’ in-house pollster during the 2025 federal election. David helps break down the facts and explains how Carney would govern under such an arrangement.
There are 343 seats in the House of Commons, and therefore a party needs 172 seats to form a Majority.
Candice and David discuss the road to 172, going back to election night when the Conservatives were able to hold the Liberals to a minority government with 169 seats.
But a lot has changed in the last 10 months.
In November, 2025, Conservative MP from Nova Scotia Chris d’Entrement was the first to jump ship by announcing he was crossing the floor and joining the Liberal caucus.
One month later, in December 2025, Conservative MP from Markham Michael Ma did the same.
Then, in February 2026, Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux shocked the country by joining PM Carney in a news conference confirming the rumours that he had crossed the floor.
Plus this week’s news of Nunavut MP Lori Idlout crossing from NDP to the Liberals
The Liberals had 169 on election night, plus three turncoat Conservatives and the recent NDP addition put Carney’s Liberals at 173.
But the Liberals have also lost three seats since the April 2025 federal election.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that three by-elections will be held on April 13, 2026.
The byelections will be held for:
Scarborough Southwest, for the seat previously held by MP Bill Blair, who is now the High Commissioner to the U.K.
University–Rosedale, previously held by MP Chrystia Freeland, who is now an economic advisor to Ukraine, and
Terribonne, Quebec, which was won by a Liberal on election night but the Supreme Court ordered a byelection after several recounts.
If the Liberals manage to win just two of these three, Mark Carney’s Liberals will obtain 172 seats, the bare number required for a Majority government.
Candice and David discuss the floor-crossings, what it’s like for MPs, staff, volunteers and the community to deal with this sort of change. They discuss the strategy, the politics, the polls and the numbers behind it all.
It's reassuring to know that Canada's Liberal government's power, strength and stability depends on members of parliament who are willing to betray the people who voted for them as Conservatives. Treason is such an admirable quality in government representation.
How are the Liberals enticing these people - investigative journalism please. Juno News appears to be the only reporting media not taking federal govt funding.