Is it $5 billion or $170 billion?
A pro-independence group is pushing back against dramatically higher estimates of Alberta’s separation price tag, claiming the province could transition to an independent country for roughly $5 billion in one-time costs.
The Alberta Transition Council released two reports Wednesday laying out what it says independence would cost — and how much money Alberta could have left afterward.
Its Budget and Costing Report puts the one-time transition bill at $4.96 billion over roughly three years, averaging about $1.65 billion annually.
A companion report, Forward to Freedom: Can Alberta Afford Independence?, goes further. Under the council’s assumptions, Alberta could maintain existing services, take over federal responsibilities and run an independent country while retaining $22.2 billion to $32.1 billion in annual financial room.
That works out to roughly $4,390 to $6,350 per Albertan — money the council says could instead go toward tax cuts, debt repayment, savings, infrastructure or public services.
But there’s a major caveat to the $5-billion headline.
The $4.96-billion estimate only covers one-time transition costs. It excludes defence equipment, liquidity support, some Indigenous spending and any negotiated federal debt-and-asset settlement.
The council also estimates another $3.63 billion a year would be needed to run the new functions of an independent country.
That helps explain the massive gap with a University of Calgary School of Public Policy analysis commissioned and funded by the Alberta government.
That study estimated separation could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion over its first five years.
The estimates aren’t apples to apples. The council counts one-time transition costs, while the UCalgary analysis includes broader economic and fiscal impacts.
Federal debt is another wildcard.
The council models $6.2 billion a year in debt payments if Alberta assumes a population-based share of federal debt — and says the province would still have billions left over.
It also stress-tested its projections against higher Indigenous funding, a smaller corporate tax base and higher borrowing costs. Combined, those scenarios add $13.5 billion in annual costs, leaving an estimated $8.7 billion to $18.6 billion a year in financial room.
“Our research shows the considerable economic and fiscal strength Alberta brings to that discussion and provides evidence that the transition is financially viable,” said council co-lead Keith Wilson, K.C.
However, the council cautions that its estimates are not predictions and do not account for how independence could affect economic growth, employment or trade.
That’s where the government-commissioned analysis paints a much different picture.
Under its “difficult” scenario, Alberta’s economy could be 16 per cent smaller after 20 years, with employment nearly five per cent lower and annual deficits topping $30 billion.
Its “smooth” scenario assumes continued access to major trade markets, expanded resource development and more efficient government services.
Premier Danielle Smith, who has advocated that Alberta stay in Canada, has separately pegged potential transition costs at $400 billion, while the Canada West Foundation has estimated more than $200 billion.
Beyond dollars and cents, Wilson has framed independence as a question of how much political control Alberta has within Confederation.
“Alberta can grow. Alberta can prosper. Alberta can become increasingly important to the Canadian and global economy,” Wilson wrote Friday on X.
“But population-based representation means Ontario and Quebec will continue to decide what Albertans can and can’t do; how much tax we pay,” he added.
The competing claims are landing just weeks before Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum.
The non-binding vote will ask Albertans whether to remain in Canada or begin the process toward a binding separation referendum.
Wilson is campaigning for the second option, arguing it would give Alberta greater leverage with Ottawa.